A Contamination Prediction Model of Cesium-137 and Strontium-90 Concentrations in Crop Production in the Long Term after the Chernobyl Nuclear Accident

This is a new and more improved prediction model for 137Cs and 90Sr specific activities in agricultural crops developed in the framework of our research project “Evaluation and prediction of 137Cs and 90Sr accumulation in staple food crops grown on contaminated soils of different types in the long term after the Chernobyl accident” implemented under the State Programme on Overcoming the Consequences of the Chernobyl NPP Disaster 2011–2015 and up until 2020.

It is a web application specifically designed for the calculation of prediction values of 137Cs and 90Sr concentrations for a wide range of crops cultivated on soddy-podzolic and peaty soils typical for the contaminated area. There is a separate tab for each type of soil with 41 crops in the soddy podzols and 15 varieties available for the contamination prediction in the peaty soils tab.

The soil-to-plant transfer of radionuclides strongly depends on agrochemical characteristics of soils, which is why the model offers you a set of changeable soil parameters, such as acidity, humus content, exchangeable potassium and phosphorus to make a more accurate prediction of 137Cs and 90Sr contamination for a selected variety.

To change the soil parameters and deposition density simply slide the respective bar to the left or right from its default position.

The prediction model app is available in Russian only. You can access it via http://forecastmodel.pythonanywhere.com/. Please contact us for any additional enquiries.

Source citing is necessary and required when making use of the prediction model, prediction estimates or the information above in whole or parts.